A Recommendation of Statistical Analysis for Test and Evaluation

This research was intended to provide a consistent analytical approach to test and evaluation procedures for AFOTEC. Particularly, this thesis had a two-pronged focus. The first was a provision of guidance that consisted of a review of key terms and essential steps necessary to achieve sound and accurate system analysis. The second was an upgrade of COBRA software that assists analysts in accomplishing accurate analysis. The analysis and reporting procedure guidance was drawn from an extensive literature review of hypothesis testing and statistical methods used to measure and make inferences about sample parameters. AFOTEC test and evaluation guidelines were also reviewed, specifically the guidance of how test teams should rate measures of performance. The literature review of hypothesis testing and statistical methods were also used to improve COBRA. Finally, a thorough literature review of reliability, key statistical distributions, and confidence bounds were instrumental in COBRA's upgrade. The recommended analysis and reporting procedures were a key result of this research effort. The implementation of the recommended analysis and reporting procedures along with using COBRA as an aid will help to ensure AFOTEC is able to consistently and accurately evaluate the effectiveness and suitability of a system.