A Statistically-Based Method for Predicting Fog and Stratus Dissipation

A statistically-based forecasting tool is developed for Dover AFB, McGuire AFB, and Andrews AFB for dissipation times of fog and low stratus. Probability forecasts are produced at hourly increments from 0-6 hours for the most extreme reductions in visibility (less than 0.5 mi) and ceilings (below 200 ft). Forecasts are based on surface observations, upper air observations, and climatological parameters.