An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability Software's Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

The performance of the Nuclear Facility (NFAC) incident module in modeling a nuclear reactor accident is evaluated. Fallout predictions are compared with air concentration measurements of I-131 in Europe over a five-day period. Two categories of source term specifications are used: NFAC-generated source terms based on plant conditions and accident severity, and user-defined source terms based on specifying the release of I-131. The Atmospheric Transport Model Evaluation Study report source term provided the needed detailed release information. The Air Force Combat Climatology Center provided weather data covering Europe during the release's 11-day duration.