Chaos, Complexity, and Ethnic Conflict

This thesis examines the application of the principles of chaos and complexity theory to the analysis of ethnic conflict. In the post cold war era, the United States continues to become entangled in ethnic quagmires throughout the world. However, current analytical methods prove unable to encompass the full dynamic of these conflicts. Understanding and prediction suffer. To help overcome this shortfall, intelligence doctrine must now go beyond the principles of Newtonian reductionism and embrace the new science of systems. This study compares the principles of chaos and complexity theory to ethnic conflict factors contained in an author developed ethnic conflict complexity model (ECCM). Historical examples are superimposed on the model to help illustrate these relationships. This thesis demonstrates that chaos and complexity theory can aid in intelligence analysis. Combined with the ECCM, these principles provide the analyst a cognitive roadmap. In addition, as illustrated in this study, chaos and complexity theory not only have the potential to revolutionize intelligence doctrine but leadership doctrine as well. Armed with the knowledge of system dynamics, military leaders of tomorrow may learn how to thrive within the maelstrom of conflict.