Deep Cuts and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

This volume opens with an analysis of public opinion data which reveals that several common beliefs about public attitudes toward defense are myths. The public has not repudiated nuclear deterrence; public attitudes are quite stable, not volatile; and public opinion is not contradictory. Despite the politicization of nuclear weapons policy, this report explains, three key elements can be combined to form a national security strategy which could be supported by a consensus of experts and publics among the Western alliance. First, in terms of nuclear weapons, the focus of arms control negotiation should be redirected to enhancing stability at substantially lower numbers. In terms of conventional weapons, several initiatives should be undertaken. Also, civilian political leaders should begin a major, NATO based study on warning and decision-making. Furthermore, a consensus defense and arms control strategy should include restrictions on anti-satellite weapons and SDI. This volume is divided into five parts: Introduction; Stability and Change in Public Opinions about Nuclear Weapons Policy, 1945-1987; Four Alternative National Security Futures; Lessons Learned from Examining Radical Changes; and Building Towards a Consensus. Co-published with the Aspen Strategy Group.