Determinants of Crop Production in Bangladesh

Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climate conditions. The impacts of climate change on agriculture crop production are global concerns as well as Bangladesh. To measure Climatic and Hydrological effects on different types of crop productions in Bangladesh, Multiple Regression Model has been used as a measuring tools of cause-effect relation. At the same time, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with external regressor, that is, ARIMAX model has used considering the time effects, because the data-set used in this study is a time sequence data. This is completely a new study for measuring the Climatic and Hydrological effects by using ARIMAX model. Again, from the comparative study, Multiple Regression is the best model for vegetable, potato and cereal production; and ARIMAX is the best model for rice, jute and species production for measuring the climatic and hydrological effects on agricultural production in Bangladesh.