Deterrence 2035

This paper describes the United States' reliance on space and the effect of the new phenomena called CubeSat. It explores current and emerging threats to spacecraft, the role of nanotechnology in developing new space technology, revisits space policy and basic deterrence theory. It further examines how to evolve the traditional understanding of deterrence to limit the potential gain an adversary may try to realize through transparency and diversity or system redundancy. The paper concludes with recommendations to expand the space industrial base to reduce costs and allow technology the ability to drive the miniaturization of spacecrafts along with a modular approach to building satellites and launch systems. In addition to improvements to the space surveillance networks required to track tomorrow's much smaller threat. Only then will the adversary realize that an attack would be futile and ultimately deterred.