Developing a Predictive Model for Facility Repair Costs on United States Air Force Installations

The Air Force Civil Engineering community spends significant effort maintaining and repairing their infrastructure and facilities at their installations worldwide. They continually search for ways to better illustrate the impact of funding decisions on future infrastructure and facility conditions. The purpose of this research was to develop a predictive model for determining future facility repair costs. The research analyzed current and past funding levels as a possible predictor of future repair costs by way of a multiple linear regression. During the research, one variable of specific interest was deferred maintenance. The results provide a predictive model that can be used to forecast repair costs with a 3-year outlook. Given the environmental, political, and economic factors that affect financial decisions, the model provides a solid basis for predicting future costs based on previous expenditures. The model can be used to help support and defend future Air Force funding decisions and can be adapted for use by non-Air Force organizations.