Energy 20002020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses

In 1977, at the Xth World Energy Conference in Istanbul, the Conservation Commission presented an initial global study of future trends in energy supply and demand up to 2020. This pioneering work was the origin of large scale global energy surveys. At the Munich Conference of 1980, the Commission made more thorough analyses by concentrating particularly on the specific behaviour of Third World Nations. Today, in New Delhi, in keeping with the tradition established by its previous surveys, the Commission is developing a new global study, the originality of which lies in the procedure adopted in its production. Rejecting centralised forecasting models which have almost exclusively dominated the minds of researchers, the Commission recommended a decen tralised method of approach which was totally different both in its basic principles and in its implementation. Essentially, the inhabitants of the regions were to be given the opportunity of expressing their own views on their energy future, rather than imposing on them an external model and therefore external results.