Ethnic Conflict and CENTCOM Policy for the Central Asian Republics

This paper identifies a possible shortfall in US military planning, the experience of CENTCOM planners in dealing with the Central Asian States. Their emphasis is understandably focused on Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan. This paper will develop for these planners the most likely threat to stability in CENTCOM's AOR - ethnic conflict caused by spillover from neighboring countries. This paper will also attempt to counter critics in the January/February 2000 Foreign Affairs who maintain that our obtuse military ties are not sensible nor sustainable. They describe our current activities as a manner reminiscent of ill-advised US activities in Latin America in the 1970s. All of these condemnations from Jaffe and Manning, although most unfounded, are perceptions that senior economists and political scientists hold. This paper will help CENTCOM fire for effect in developing and implementing a dynamic engagement strategy in this important region.