Fall of the Fighter Generals

Fighter pilots dominate the senior leadership of the United States Air Force (USAF), holding 67 percent of the four-star general officer positions and commanding 63 percent of all major commands. Yet they make up only 5.3 percent of the force. Our last eight USAF Chiefs of Staff have been fighter pilots. They constitute an elite group which influences, if not outright controls, every aspect of the Air Force institution. Such dominant "elite" groups have a great deal to say about the vision, doctrine, budgeting, program priorities, and direction of any organization. Therefore, one can expect conflict among groups within any organization, all competing for influence. The belief is that if one group predominates the senior leadership, it usually controls the organization. Colonel Michael Worden, in his ground-breaking book Rise of the Fighter Generals, describes how senior leadership in the USAF transformed from a group dominated by bomber pilots to one dominated by fighter pilots. Worden attempts to describe when, how, and why the shift in leadership occurred from the "bomber barons" to the "fighter mafia." Using historical data on education, equipment, and budgets, he details the environment that almost inevitably led to this transition. What he did not ask is whether this transition was a unique changing of the guard, or would there be further changes in leadership. While Worden looked back at history to explain why one transition of leadership occurred, this research will use the same indicators, plus updated data, to look forward and predict if another transition awaits the Air Force. This study is an empirical analysis based upon organizational theory, thus we begin with a brief overview of organization and group theory.