Formula for Deterrence

This paper frames the nuclear deterrent debate for current applicability in today's complex security environment and supports the strategy of tailored deterrence as an appropriate way ahead to protect America's interests. It then discusses deterrence concepts to set the stage for answering a series of questions regarding whether deterrence works. The paper questions what the US is trying to deter and whether nuclear retaliation an effective response, focusing on peer/near-peer states, hostile/regional states and transnational terrorism. The paper concludes by stating Cold War deterrence is no longer effective; however, nuclear weapons are necessary and a key element to the national "tailored deterrence" strategy which expands strategic deterrence to include all elements of national power: diplomatic, informational, military and economic. Additionally, the US should consider expanding its options by encouraging ballistic missile defense and studying adversaries from a net assessment perspective.