Minimizing the Risks of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages

The Air Force faces increasingly difficult challenges to maintain and sustain its highly technical weapon systems, struggling against rapid technology advancement and diminishing lifecycle for electronic systems. The reduced lifecycle times have not only complicated sustainment, the lifecycles have diminished to the point that new military aircraft designs face challenges of obsolescence within the manufacturing cycle, and in some cases before manufacturing even begins. This research project explores Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS) and obsolescence cost associated with electronic avionic components. The overall research question asks how obsolescence management can be improved in the Air Force. This project utilizes two integrated models, the first, to determine electronic avionics demand requirements for a fleet of 96 aircraft over a 30-year period, and the second, to evaluate sustainment cost over time for a) re-engineering strategy, b) lifetime buy strategy, and c) programmed redesign strategy. Statistical analysis and long-term cost comparison of these three strategies will provide a framework to evaluate specific weapon systems for future studies and to develop an attainable low-cost sustainment strategy.