Nonstate Actor Threats in 2025 Blue Horizons Scenarios

One must know the enemy to win. To determine technologies that provide the best return on Air Force investment, decision-makers require a common context regarding the future threat space. The author bounds the future threat space using four plausible scenarios based on understanding where the enemy will fight, and with what, drawing on historical similarities and futures research. By combining joint operational planning concepts, effects-based operational principles, capabilities-based planning processes, and scenario thinking, the author developed a list of most likely adversary capabilities for each scenario. Since common context is the primary deliverable, the author discusses the uniqueness of each scenario, as well as aspects that challenge the future choice and application of technology solutions.