Rebalancing the Nuclear Weapons Triad

Since 1960, the United States has maintained a nuclear triad of intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear capable strategic bombers and submarine launched ballistic missiles. As technology advanced and new capabilities were developed, the nuclear arsenal quickly expanded. The number of strategic nuclear weapons in the United States peaked during the height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union and then significantly declined as the two countries agreed to lower numbers through a series of treaties. This paper examines the history of the US nuclear weapons triad and how the strategic nuclear force structure might look in 2025 given the recent release of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review and New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The global security outlook is also briefly discussed. Research was conducted through review of government documents, publications from national organizations, and articles written by experts in the field. With the smaller nuclear stockpile the necessity of maintaining all three legs of the triad has been questioned in several publications. For example, a 2009 paper sponsored by the Air Force Association, Triad, Dyad or Monad? Shaping the US Nuclear Force for the Future, recommended the US move to a nuclear dyad by removing the nuclear role of B-52s and B-2s. However, even though the New START ratified in 2010 further reduces the number of nuclear weapons in the stockpile, it maintains the nuclear triad structure for at least the next 10 years. The research concludes that the US nuclear triad should be maintained for at least the next two decades with a 15 to 20 percent further reduction in the nuclear strategic stockpile beyond the New START limits.