Regional Monsoon Dynamics

Global teleconnections have significant effects on regional climate, economy and society around the world including India. The long-range forecasting of the seasonal rainfall anomalies associated with teleconnections is of paramount interest for monsoon prediction and other associated climatic risks. Scientific investigation entitled, "Regional monsoon dynamics and teleconnections" was carried out for the meteorological sub-division comprising of the provinces of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh. The annual mean rainfall ranged 402.3 mm at Sirsa and 1122.4 mm at Chandigarh. Contribution of monsoon season was maximum (77 to 82%) in annual rainfall. Strong relationship between teleconnections and all India monsoon rainfall was observed. But, this significant association was missing at different locations. The regression models developed for prediction of location specific monsoon rainfall overestimated the rainfall. The knowledge allows the linkage between the regional monsoon rainfall anomalies, normal rainfall cycle, and the circulation features associated with teleconnections for fine tuning the prediction system for sustainable agricultural development.