Rule-based Expert Systems in the Command Estimate

Current command and control systems are analyzed to determine why battlefield information management is not successful. Trends in civilian decision aids for corporate executives are introduced and contrasted with military requirements. The capabilities of rule-based systems are discussed and a base line for their use in the command estimate is introduced. Observations of the command estimate made by the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL) and the Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI) are analyzed to determine areas of the command estimate that can benefit from assistance with rule-based systems. A detailed examination of the flow of information through the command estimate process is conducted using techniques of systems analysis. Additionally, the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) is analyzed using the same methodology. This study of the information flows and the types of information managed by each process indicates areas that can be enhanced with assistance by rule-based systems. The study concludes that rule-based systems can be used to automate the IPB process and significantly contribute to portions of the command estimate. The role these systems can play is best described as a staff aid. Functions would include expression and dissemination of the commander's intent, creation of planning time lines and synchronization matrices, standardization of mission statements, performance of the IPB, assistance and maintenance of task organizations, tracking of critical events, and creation and dissemination of warning orders.