Shot in the Dark

Since the end of the Cold War, commercial activity in outer space has seen rapid growth while government activity has remained flat. Space commerce growth is projected to continue. US national security space leaders have asserted the need to protect this space commerce, but industry is indifferent. I have tried to understand the actual threats, assess their credibility, determine the implications of threats, and examine possible responses. Preliminary conclusions? Space commerce is not an economic center of gravity for the US, but GPS reliance can be exploited easily. However, the military and intelligence community's reliance on commercial satellite communications is a potential vulnerability and preparedness for this threat is lacking. Commercial remote sensing will supply a significant portion of national security needs in next decade so we should begin now to prepare for interference. Ingeneral, government and industry lack space situational awareness and this should be corrected if we are to deter threats against commercial space systems.