Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, governments worldwide undertook massive fiscal interventions to stave off what otherwise would have likely been a system-wide financial and economic meltdown. The policy responses engendered significant shifts in growth trajectories and debt sustainability outlooks of both mature and developing economies. For Low Income Countries, post-crisis debt sustainability analyses show an average deterioration of 5-7 percentage points in the present value of public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009-10 compared with pre-crisis projections, and stay in the area of 30 per cent until 2014. Among the LICs, 40 per cent face high risk of (or are in) debt distress. In the G20 countries, government debt-to-GDP ratios are expected reach 85 per cent by 2014. The magnitude of public liabilities incurred and the uncertainty surrounding the exit from unprecedented discretionary fiscal stimulus have become a major source of concern about a future crisis. Will the current stringent financial conditions lead to a wave of sovereign debt problems around the world? Or will countries, given their stronger fundamentals compared with previous crises episodes, successfully muddle through the crisis? The objective of the book is to present and discuss policy-relevant research on the current debt challenges which developing, emerging market, and developed economies face. Its value added lies in the integrated approach of drawing on theoretical research and evidence from practitioners experience in developing, emerging market, and developed countries. The study is partially funded by the Debt Management Facility for Low-Income Countries. Contributors involve World Bank staff, other international and multilateral institutions, external researchers.