Strategic Implications of US Fighter Force Reductions

Lanchester equations are used as the foundation for analysis of air superiority forces, mathematically addressing the impending shortage of the United States fighters; focusing on the role of advanced technology: stealth aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and the rapid proliferation of electronic attack capabilities. These factors are accounted for in determination of the attrition coefficients for heterogeneous fighter aircraft through a simplistic scoring methodology and compared to potential adversarial states. ARENA simulation is employed to determine minimal fighter requirements and expected blue force losses as a function of threat force size and capability. Analysis concludes that the United States is incapable of fighting a forward deployed aerial battle against a numerically equal or superior force that employs advanced technology unless initial force strength is at least half the adversarial totals. It is recommended that the US leverage innovation and advance specific technological areas surrounding fighter force lethality and survivability to address the deficiency in aircraft numbers for the foreseeable future.