Surprise Hypothesis

Using the scientific method, this monograph combines the concepts of surprise and information superiority to create a hypothesis that explains the principle of war. The hypothesis rests on the belief that omniscience, a state of perfect information superiority, prevents surprise. Building on this theoretical extreme, the monograph presents a new definition of surprise, the components of surprise, a visual model of surprise and summarizes planning and execution procedures for deliberate surprise attacks. All of these hypothesis pieces are information superiority based. The monograph does not submit the hypothesis to sufficient testing to claim this to be a theory .





This is a starting point. After rigorous testing and discussion, the hypothesis has the potential to drive changes in doctrine, the education system, training, and simulations. Furthermore, a mature version of this hypothesis may promote adjustments to current staff structures. At the very least, the monograph suggests that the current understanding of surprise can improve. The United States military's undisputed power on the conventional battlefield could force adversaries to use surprise in order to level the playing fields. The U.S. military must understand this principle of war both to counter future enemy actions and to improve its own military operations.