The Drawdown

The Air Force is wrapping up one of the largest and fastest drawdowns in its history. More significant, it is the first ever to impact the All-Volunteer Force. This paper reviewed the following drawdown impacts on active duty Air Force people: retention; sustainment; and recruiting. Historical trends, studies, and surveys were used to examine impacts in each area, and there have been many impacts.While first-term enlisted retention is at an all-time high, second-term retention is down. Although the trends show non-rated officers and navigators were most affected, pilot and navigator retention is at an all-time high. Both officer and enlisted members saw promotions suffer in terms of opportunity and timing. Operations Tempo (OPTEMPO) is up four-fold from 1989 while Air Force strength fell by 30 percent. The impacts of increased OPTEMPO on people and their families may eventually show up in lower retention rates and reduced readiness. Finally, the recruiting environment has suffered. Propensity of youth to join the Air Force has fallen 30 percent in the last six years. This tougher environment means recruiters must work harder and recruiting budgets must rise to meet new challenges.Drawdowns are not new, indeed they've proven to be cyclic. We can learn from the past and present, to address inevitable, future drawdowns. Future research should consider impacts on the Total Force, including active, civilian, Guard, and Reserve.