Theater-Level Stochastic Air-to-Air Engagement Modeling via Event Occurrence Networks Using Piecewise Polynomial Approximation

This dissertation investigates a stochastic network formulation termed an event occurrence network (EON). EONs are graphical representations of the superposition of several terminating counting processes. An EON arc represents the occurrence of an event from a group of (sequential) events before the occurrence of events from other event groupings. Events between groups occur independently, but events within a group occur sequentially. A set of arcs leaving a node is a set of competing events, which are probabilistically resolved by order relations. EONs differ from other stochastic networks discussed in the literature such as Activity Networks, Petri Nets, Task Precedence Graphs, and Belief Networks and are strongly influenced by the research of Ancker, Gafarian, Kress and several associates to model m versus n stochastic ground combat.