True Impacts of Growth: Toward an Awakening? / Le Bel avenir de la croissance

Gilbert Cette is a professor of economics associated with the University of Aix-Marseille, and an expert in the job market.(other bios to come)Whereas the twentieth century was an exceptional period of prosperity for our developed countries, the motors for growth seem to have slowed down since the beginning of the twenty-first century. And, contrary to what has been thought for a time, uncertainty concerning GDP figures and its growth cannot alone explain the slowdown. Two scenarios emerge: one, popularized by the American economist, Robert Gordon, describes a "secular stagnation;" the other anticipates, on the contrary, a coming wave of growth notably associated with artificial intelligence and a digital economy.To understand the risks that weigh on future growth, it is essential to distinguish its various elements in order to assess those that would be eliminated, those that would only be "asleep," and those that are on the verge of being born. This is the approach taken in this work.The authors analyze the main factors in growth, notably productivity which is primarily fed by innovation, stressing the importance of institutions to encourage the convergence of developed countries; and finally they speak out against the endemic delays in France and countries in the South in carrying out iedispensable structural reforms.