Wars of Ignorance

Wars of Ignorance explains the dangerous pattern of leaders feeling certain they know how war will unfold despite the inherent uncertainties of warfare. A leader's misplaced certainty originates in stunted advisory processes: leaders consistently silence advisers from the bureaucracy that conducts diplomacy. Crucially, these advisers are the ones best-equipped to judge whether the enemy's political landscape makes war a promising or doomed endeavor. Diplomats thus foster peace not because they are doves, but because they have unique information that leaders need to accurately gauge the international crises they confront. Absent this information, leaders risk blundering into war.