The Fallacy of the Shiite Crescent and Arab Unity

Ever since King Abdullah II of Jordan quipped that the Middle East may soon see a Shiite Crescent stretching from Iran to Lebanon the United States and the Arab nations of the Middle East have been obsessed with Iran's increased influence in the region. Some believe that Iran will merge the Shiite populations of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into a sort of Shiite super state. In contrast, a second school of thought believes that a Shiite Crescent will not emerge due to Arab unity in the face of Persian expansion. Both of these theories are flawed and subscribing to them can significantly decrease the efficacy of any U.S. initiatives in the region. Without a doubt Iran has increased its influence. The removal of Iran's chief antagonists Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, paved the way for increased Iranian engagement throughout the Persian Gulf, the Caucasus and the Middle East. Furthermore, Hezbollah's 2006 strategic victory over Israel, the seeming international paralysis at dealing with Iran's nuclear transgressions and the United States' focus in Iraq and Afghanistan have emboldened Iran.